Friday, November 2, 2012

Get it right, people!




I get thoroughly annoyed with news agencies that leap at the chance to snag the latest news and end up getting it wrong. This time it’s the latest jobs report and the stock market.

With the latest increase in the October jobs report, the media reported a good showing in the stock market.

Forbes -  “Stocks reacted favorably to the numbers”

Huffington Post - “Investors were pleased by the news… within minutes [the Dow] was up 30 points.”

L.A. Times – “Stocks rose in early trading after two upbeat reports fueled optimism about the labor market”

Bloomber Businessweek – “stocks are within reach of record highs”

Here is a stock market graph of today's Dow. It dropped like a rock.




So where are these favorable numbers and optimism? If the reporter could have waited 30 minutes he/she would have seen a tumble of 139 points on the Dow. Maybe we can blame attention deficit disorder for their jump to conclusions.

Not only were they wrong about the stock market, the jobs report is misleading. The news agencies stated that 171,000 jobs were created, indicating that there was good economic news as a result. They said the same thing when commenting on the September jobs report.

The Daily Beast, referring to September numbers said, “The payroll-jobs figure shows the labor market is recovering."

Oh really?

Here is a graph of this years jobs report. The blue rectangles indicate the levels for the month they were reported. 



You might have noticed the red lines. I added them to indicate the revised levels for June, July, August and September.

Last month the news was raving about how the jobs report showed increases and that the economy was on the mend. In August there was a rise, but in September it fell. 

With the revision, the news could easily have said that in September, the economy is weak and evident of a possible double dip recession. But I doubt the Daily Beast will admit they were wrong between August and September...it is old news after all.

So is October’s numbers accurate or not? Is it accurate to say the economy is bouncing back? Until the November’s jobs report comes out, we won’t know for sure. Even then, with jobs numbers like this October the economy is far from out of the woods. In any case, a few positive months does not necessarily mean the "market is recovering."

My intention of this article is not to promote a particular view of the economy or bolster either candidate in the latest presidential race.
My comments are about the sensationalism of the media to distort the news. If news agencies are going to announce well formed conclusions, I would hope they would pause a moment and focus on accuracy first. When they don't, it reduces their credibility and standing with the public.

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