Saturday, November 12, 2016

Trump is NOT Hitler


Let me get this out right off...Trump is NOT Hitler! There is no comparison; and to assume otherwise is absurd. With that off my chest, let me explain why.

I am a man of facts. I use facts to determine life choices. Many of us can be persuaded by emotions, myths, and preconceived ideas, but I believe Truth only rests in the realm of emotion, and lives in the home of facts. What disturbs and saddens me is the unfounded fear that has spread throughout our nation about President-elect Donald Trump. 

In the last two centuries, mankind has advanced technology and science at an exponential rate, while advancement in emotions and morality continues to creep along at a slugs pace. 
At the beginning of this country, pilgrims barely survived...now we have been to the moon and feed not only our country but countries around the world. Morality, once admired and something to strive for, has been replaced with narcissism and belittling.

Half the voting population did not want Trump as president and believe he will be dangerous. I contend that this is baseless and as one commentator calls it, "Neo-McCarthyism hysteria." 

Peter Theil, PayPal's co-founder, was ridiculed throughout the election, not because of the fact that he was gay, or because of something he said, but because he was supporting Mr. Trump. When referring to the current state of American diversity, he said,  "If you don't conform then you don't count as diverse, no matter what your personal background."

Hysteria

I believe that there are four major elements to this Anti-Trump hysteria: Loss of control, preconceived notions, The Elite, and The media.

Loss of Control
Feeling like we’ve lost control is likely to bring out our worst fears. As Madhukar Trivedi, chair of the University of Texas-Southwestern’s Mental Health Department, told KERA news, people are more afraid of flying than of driving cars because “in a car, at least I know when to brake. In a plane, I have no control.” 
Being on the losing side of an election, means losing control of what was perceived as important, and may have contributed to the fear of a Trump presidency.

Preconceived Notions
Where did Mr. Trump's negatives begin? Prior to his announcement to run for president, he was known as a billionaire businessman with assets in hotels, real estate,  golf courses, TV shows, etc. Once he ran for office, everyday phrases and comments were instantly terrifying. These negative views were reinforced, like a snowball rolling downhill, exacerbated by those who opposed him.

The Elite
The powerful political elites are academics and politicians who believe strongly that they are the glue that holds the country together. When it was seen that Mr. Trump was a viable contender for the presidency, they made sure that every jot and tittle he spoke was scrutinized. These elites were from both parties, but the republican elites had the most to lose, and therefore, were more outspoken. To lose their power would mean a possible restructuring of the status quo. 

The Media 
The American news agencies are primarily left of the political center (see graph below). Many men and women in the industry have justified their bias, by saying things like [1]"it may serve to create narrative texture or make a story understandable."   To slant any story is a poor excuse. But to intentionally, shape a story is pitiful. [2]  BuzzFeed turned down $1.3 million in advertising from the RNC because they thought Trump was “hazardous” to their employees. 
It is only anecdotal, but I watched the nightly news for a week in October of 2016 and found on an average night, there were three negative Trump stories to one positive Clinton story. 
In the past, news agencies have provided the facts on both sides. Lately, sleaze and death lead the news, leaving US policy issues to wither away.

When these factors combine, it's a perfect storm of destruction of the Donald Trump persona. In fact, with the social and political winds blowing so strongly against him, it is incredible that Mr. Trump could garner enough votes to win the election; and yet winning over 300 electoral votes is virtually a miracle. 

The Future of a Trump Presidency

Based on credible data, I had predicted that Trump would win the nomination and ultimately the presidency. Some people were skeptical of my analysis, others thought it preposterous, but the election results vindicated my forecast. In the same way, I will predict what the future will hold for the U.S. 

Donald Trump will operate the country like he operates his business...like a CEO. He will gather the best and brightest around him, as long as they are trust worthy. He has worked around politicians all his life, so he is not going in naive.
As CEO, he sees things from a broad point of view, so he will let others work out the details of his principles.
He demands to be profitable, and has reaped bonuses for getting jobs done early. Therefore, expect him to start his first 100 days running and demanding excellence from his staff to perform well with little.
Mr. Trump has taken risks with new ventures. His airline was not profitable and he got out; his TV show (the Apprentice), was successful and he stayed with it. Expect him to be open to new ideas, in technology and even the environmental areas - As long as they work and are cost effective.
If there is a war, it will be short and no-nonsense. He doesn't like war, because as a businessman he realizes international businesses operate better when foreign entities get along with each-other.
To be accurate, he is not a democrat or a republican. His positions are nuanced to fit his beliefs, which many of lean more toward the republican party. 

He will continue to say quirky and awkward statements. At times he will be rude, offended, sympathetic, and other times down-right funny. In the end, at heart...he is just an normal American, who will try to do what he thinks is good for America.




Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/30/here-are-the-mainstream-reporters-who-are-open-about-their-anti-trump-bias/#ixzz4PojfaUjm








[1] https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/journalism-essentials/bias-objectivity/understanding-bias/
[2]http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/30/here-are-the-mainstream-reporters-who-are-open-about-their-anti-trump-bias/

Monday, October 10, 2016

Positively Political


It's been the wildest political season in decades...maybe even in the history of the United States. But I'm not here to sway you over to one candidate or the other. With so much hyperbole from both sides of the isle, I've decided to point out just the positive contributions of the candidates. 
Not that the candidates don't have discrepancies to be considered, but there is far too much negative reporting and it is easy to forget that we are talking about human beings who have personality faults. Sometimes it's best to step back and examine their actual achievements, and that is what I intend to do with this article.

As a businessman, I've often been confronted with people that I have difficulty relating to, but there is one question that always surfaces...will this person perform? This is the question of the bottom line of any job. To be profitable, or in this case effective for the country, the people want results.
Years ago, an associate told me something that has always stuck with me. There are three crucial questions that have to be answered to complete a project effectively: Is it on-time, on-budget, and to the satisfaction of the customer? Those three elements are crucial to a job, not that the man or woman is kind, or dresses well, speaks well, is beautiful, or whether we like or dislike the person.

We don't have to like the president of the United States, we have to elect a competent one that will accomplish his or her job effectively.

Forecasting was a job I took seriously in the past, and now it is a hobby of mine. To predict the future events, we must first look at the past. Therefore, to anticipate potential results of our president, we must look to the past performance of their previous work. The following information documents the top previous accomplishments of the candidates. I hope that by examining their past, we can infer what actions they may execute once in office.

There are, however, some stipulations that require rules to a positive evaluation.
First, their experience will be for the top 10 major accomplishments where they had direct input. Second, no negative personality issues will be noted. Third, only summary explanations will be displayed (since details could only be encapsulated by a book). Lastly, the personal and private lives of the candidates will not be noted.

With the flip of a coin, I will start with...


Hillary Rodham Clinton


1) In 1977, Hillary co-founded Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families

2) In 1983, she Led a task force that reformed Arkansas's education system


While senator, Hillary sponsored three bills that became law. 

3) The first piece of legislation S.3145, designated a portion of U.S. Route 20A, located in Orchard Park, N.Y., as the “Timothy J. Russert Highway,” after the former “Meet the Press” host.


4) The second piece of legislation S. 3613, renamed the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 2951 New York Highway 43 in Averill Park, New York, as the “Major George Quamo Post Office Building.”


5) The third piece, S. 1241 made the brick house of 19th century female union leader Kate Mullany a national historic site.


        There were hundreds of other bills Hillary co-sponsored, but only in a minor supporting role, and therefore, was not included. With that said, I have decided to include a few bills that were co-sponsored with just one other author (Charles Schumer). and display them as one.

6) The first bill named a US post office as "Congresswoman Shirley A. Chisholm Post Office Building." The second bill re-designated a post office as the "James E. Davis Post Office Building." The third bill was also to re-designate another post office as "Edward O'Grady, Waverly Brown, Peter Paige Post Office Building." Lastly, they co-sponsored the Niagara Falls National Heritage Area Study Act.

7) In the aftermath of September 11th, she also worked closely with  senator Charles Schumer on securing $21.4 billion in funding for the World Trade Center redevelopment.


8) In 2012, Clinton was personally involved, in diplomatic efforts that helped get Iran to the negotiating table.


9) In 2012,Secretary of State Clinton brokered a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Talks included Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. 


10) Became first woman in U.S. history to be nominated for president.


Bonus: Clinton won a Grammy in 1997 for 'Best Spoken Word or Non-Musical Album' for an audio recording of her book, It Takes a Village: And Other Lessons Children Teach Us.



Donald J. Trump


1) In 1980,  Mr. Trump completed construction of the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York, which was not the first of Trumps building projects, but it was the first major project.

2) In 1984, he built a casino/hotel named Harrah's, at Trump Plaza in Atlantic City. It was a complex that contained 614 rooms, 7 restaurants, health club, and showroom, and casino.

3) Wollman Rink is a public ice rink and music venue in Central Park. New York City closed it in 1980 for renovations but had problems finishing it. Trump took over and completed the project in 1986.

4) He bought Eastern airlines shuttle in 1989, was refitted and renamed Trump Shuttle, and sold in 1992

5) The Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants were bought in 1996 and sold in 2015.

6) Golf courses: 
The Trump Organization currently owns seven golf courses in the United States and 8 international golf courses in Scotland, Ireland, England, and the United Arab Emirates.

7)
Trump Towers outside the US are located in: Israel, Canada,Turkey, South Korea, United Arab Emerates, PanamaMexicoPhilippines, and India. 
  
8) Television shows - The Apprentice in 2004 and Celebrity Apprentice in 2008.

9)  Niche investments:  Trump Wine, Steak, Mortgage, University, Vodka, Ice (bottled water), etc.

10) First businessman in US history (without a previous political position) to be nominated for president. 

Bonus: Winner of Hollywood walk of Fame Star, for television in 2007 



A final note: This is not an exhaustive list of accomplishments of either candidate. I hope that when you are making decisions in your voting, you will take into consideration these previous positive accomplishments from their past.






For further details about Hillary Clinton's life, some flattering and some not so flattering, see this link. http://www.biography.com/people/hillary-clinton-9251306

For further details about Donald Trump's life, also good and bad, see link. http://www.biography.com/people/donald-trump-9511238

Monday, September 12, 2016

America The Beautiful



On this 15th year after the Twin Towers fell, I gazed with tears of pride at the beauty of the large squares now residing where the towers once stood. The endless depths of the water cascading off the edge seem to wash the pain of the past into the abyss of the deep center.

The United States of America is just like people who are loved by many, and yet despised by a few. America depicts the essence of democracy, capitalism, and - most importantly - freedom. In providing freedom for good for so many, so too does it allow some to be selfish. But this does not mean America is any less than a wonderful country. America is beautiful in-spite of its cracks. This indicates character - not perfection. In the preamble of the constitution the founders didn't try to create a perfect union of people, but a "more perfect union."

America has been called a "melting pot" of cultures, races, and religions. There has been an evolution toward multiculturalism, not assimilation. New metaphors like "salad bowl" or "mosaic" are being used. I am cautiously optimistic this won't revert back to segregation. I say this, because in France they have what is "no-go" zones, or in Israel where whole sections of the country separate people. In both cases, it is is a modern form of segregation - where one side becomes at odds with the other. America's intention has always tried to spread the immigrants throughout the main populous, which decreases the possibility of anger and separation. If one group separates from the general population, it is my contention that only trouble will manifest itself.

Nevertheless, these are internal issues that can be discussed at a later date. For now, my question is this: Why do so many people from so many countries risk their lives to come to the United States? And how does the U.S, the only country in the world to have such a blending of cultures,  make it work?

Evidently, the U.S. holds something special inside that many other countries don't have. The U.S. has more people immigrating than any other nation in history. There are over 4 million people per year immigrating legally...this does not include the risk taken by millions immigrating illegally. It would be silly to think that so many would risk so much if the U.S. gave so little. Therefore, America has something special. Sure, it has many resources and an economy for job opportunities, but many countries have that. In America, there is hope...a great hope for a better way of life.

To put it simply, America is beautiful because of it's freedom.
PBS sums it up well with the term The Five Freedoms: Freedom to worship, freedom from oppression, freedom from want, freedom from fear, and freedom to create. Regardless of the chinks in the armor of American history, I have been so very proud to have been blessed with citizenship in a place where the country embraces its people as one.
The motto of the United States, adopted in 1776, is  e pluribus unum (Latin for "out of many, one"). Yes, regardless of the many differing cultures, we still like to think of ourselves as one...that one is Americans. It is easy to complain about small things in life, but after travelling the world, I can truly say that America is beautiful.

http://www.pbs.org/destinationamerica/usim_wy.html

Friday, June 10, 2016

It's not you, It's your Amygdala



I was watching a man interview women who said they were going to vote for Hillary Clinton. They were asked why, and the first words were "because she's a woman." 
Is it sexist for a woman to vote for a person because she's a woman?
My first reaction was yes. Then I thought it odd that the first word out of their mouth was "woman" when they could have said, because she was an experienced secretary of state, or because she was an intelligent politician, or she will fight for human rights. 
But then again, it would be too obvious and highly unlikely to consider them sexist. So why would they say it?

It isn't just Hillary, but Trump as well. Here are some side by side photos with the first word that came to peoples minds when they think of them.



Could it be that the first words out of our mouth are not what we think, but more what we feel? I say that because, when we are put on the spot, or are in a threatening situation, our brain triggers the "fight or flight" syndrome. 
The fight-or-flight response is an acute stress response... a physiological reaction that occurs in response to a perceived harmful event, attack, or threat to survival.
The reaction begins in the amygdala and triggers a series of physiological events to occur. The amygdala is by definition "an almond-shaped mass of gray matter inside each cerebral hemisphere, involved with the experiencing of emotions."

Did you notice the last word in the definition - emotions?


The amygdala activates the hypothalamus, the pituitary gland, and other parts of our body during times of stress; essentially there is a rise in blood pressure and a series of other physiological changes that causes us humans to respond in a physical way....not in an intellectual way.

Have you ever noticed that you only figure out what startled you after you’ve already reacted?  (see link below) "The amygdala is able to process sensory information and initiate behavioral responses before the information reaches the awareness centers of the brain."  
This may be why we quickly say kooky things and think "why did I just say that?"
It may be more important to think through our thoughts before answering, but in the end, our thoughtful insights are far behind our reactions to incoming circumstances. 

Therefore, when we are put on the spot, I contend that we do not think our answers through thoughtfully, but rather respond with a gut reaction. We might respond with what we fear, what we love, what is dear to our heart, but it isn't because we thought through the answer with deep introspection.

So whether it's a response to a political question, or any other situation that is controversial, we shouldn't be too hard on ourselves or hard on others for saying something awkward. For in these moments, what may sound sexist, or just plain dumb, actually may have an important emotional meaning. It may not be well thought out, but it may have some significance to it that your brain really has no control over.
Yes that's right, it's the truest form of a no brainer. 
Next time someone questions your rushed response to a voting question, you might not have had a choice...it may well be just your Amygdala talking.






Thursday, April 14, 2016

The Epidemic



I watched a NOVA program highlighting the Alzheimer's disease. It reminded me of a dream where I had Alzheimer's myself...very scary and vulnerable. I wrote this short story, which was the essence of my dream. Science has found a gene responsible and are creating drugs to conquer the effects. But it is a slow process to find a cure. Meanwhile, people may forget, but they should not be forgotten.




            Trudy sat on the park bench reading a pamphlet about local attractions. She looked up from reading...a pain flew through her body. Wait a minute. Where am I? She tucked the pamphlet back into her purse. She examined a group of people across the green-space. I came here with my son, but I don’t see him. Those people seem familiar but I don’t want to embarrass myself by not knowing their names.
            The appropriate thing to do was go back to her son’s car to wait for him. She stood up and walked toward the parking garage. As she entered the parking garage she stopped abruptly.
            What level was the car on?
            She started up the second level and then turned around to peek across the hoods of the vehicles. Where is the car? A flash of fear took hold of her. What kind of car did I come in? She watched a man put luggage in his trunk, and stood still as others made their way to their car. But she had no idea where she should go. She took a deep breath and pressed her hand to her chest. I’ll go back to the party. Someone will know where my son is.
            Trudy left the garage and walked quickly across the street to the restaurant where she had just been awhile earlier. She entered and went to the back where several cliques of people still gathered. She moved to the back hoping someone would stop her to chat. When she got to the rear of the room and no one had made the effort to speak to her - panic began to set in. She turned around and scanned the room for someone familiar.
            I don’t recognize anyone here. I…must get back to my son.
            Trudy exited the restaurant and stood at the curb. She glanced up and down the street. What if he doesn’t show? How will I get home? She rifled through her purse to find her drivers license.
            “Oh, here it is. Of course! 1375 16th St. I’m so silly. How could I forget where I have lived for decades?” She put the license back into her purse and scanned the area nervously.
            A man in a suit in his forties came close. “Hello. Are you alright? Did you lose something?”
            Trudy put on a brave face. “Oh hello. No, I am just fine. I am waiting for my son.”
             “Okay. Just had to ask.” The man smiled and turned to leave.
            She kept her eyes on him for a moment and felt the pit in her stomach well up.

***

            Back in the restaurant, Penny, a young waitress was serving coffee to a few locals. She looked out through the picture window for the fifth time in an hour. Finally, she paused and starred at the older woman.
            “What’s up Pen?” said a local guy named Big Bob.
            “That lady by the curb has been standing alone for over an hour.”
            Big Bob brushed crumbs off his large belly and looked over his shoulder. “Yeah, she’s probably waiting to be picked up…or she’s lost.
            Penny held the coffee pot in the air. “Something is not right.”
            “Female intuition?” he asked.
            “Yeah, something like that.” She spilled a little coffee on the table, then quickly wiped it up. “I’ll be back in a minute, guys.”
            Penny took her break and walked outside over to the woman. “Are you waiting for someone, Ma’am?”
            Trudy turned around. “Yes, sweetie. My son.”
            “Oh. I ask, because I work in the restaurant and noticed you’ve been here awhile.”
            Trudy gazed out into the street, then back at Penney. “I hope he hasn’t been in an accident?”
            “I’m sure he’s just delayed. I’m Penny." she said, reaching out a hand.
            Trudy looked around, then shook Penny’s hand.
            “What’s your name, Ma’am?”
            “I’m Trudy. Trudy Diefenbaker.”
            “Nice to meet you, Trudy. It’s a little chilly out here. You can take a seat by the window in the restaurant and wait for him there?”
            Trudy nodded. “I’m sure that would be okay.”
            Penny escorted Trudy to a booth with a good view of the curb, then went to the bar to get a fresh pot of coffee. The owner walked out from the back, wiping his apron. He was a large man, with a large paunch and a puzzled frown.
            “So what’s up, Pen?”
            “This is the third person this week who seems to be lost. I don’t get it. Is something in the water?”
            “There may be some truth to that. My sister is a social worker and works downtown at the police station. She said the police have picked up about a dozen people who were sleeping on the park benches.”
            Penny stared at him blankly. “What’s so odd about that? Transients are all over the place downtown.”
            “Yeah, but these people weren’t homeless. They were respectable citizens. She told me all of them forgot who they were with and where they should go. One guy is only in his mid forties. The police were chocking it up to early onset Alzheimer’s. ”
            Penny nodded. “Well that makes sense.”
            “It would, except for one thing. I went to a class reunion with that same guy the other week and talked to him. He sounded as clear as a bell.”
            “Could Alzheimer’s creep up on you that fast?”
            He shrugged. “I don’t know. But it sounds pretty fishy to me.”
            Penny took out the fresh pot from the coffee maker. “That woman is waiting for her son. She may not have a memory problem at all - just a little lost. But if he doesn’t return, what should we do with her?”
            “Call social services I guess. Let’s give her some time first.”
            “That’s what I was thinking.” Penny took the coffee to Trudy, who was staring out at the crowd. “Still hasn’t showed up yet?”
            Trudy looked up and smiled politely. “No, he hasn’t. I’m sure he will be here soon.”
            “Yeah. He was probably just delayed. So what’s your son’s name?”
            Trudy drew a blank then started to recall. “It’s B…Bobby. Yes, Bobby.” She shook her head. “I don’t know what’s wrong with me. I never have a problem with names. You’re name is Penny and I just met you.”
            “Oh don’t worry about it. It happens to the best of us.”
            Trudy sighed. “I suppose so.”
            Penny patted Trudy’s hand. “How about if Bobby doesn’t show up, we take you to the police station?”
            Trudy pulled her hand away. “Why? I haven’t done anything.”
            “No, no. I just meant that he may be detained or even hurt. This way you could be available if they need you to be with him. Who knows, he may be at the station asking the police to find you.”
            “Those are good reasons to leave, but I would rather just stay here thank you.”
            Penny smiled sweetly. “Okay, Trudy. I’ll be available if you need me.”
            Trudy returned the smile, then looked out the window, up to the curb, at endless flow strangers.
            Penny also looked out the window. Who and how many more would be next?



In the NOVA episode, they discovered the largest family to have contracted the disease in Columbia. Almost 50% of the people in the family had a gene traced back to one man, a conquistador from Spain. Needless to say, scientists are testing these new drugs on this family to prevent the onset of Alzheimer's from devastating the surviving members.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

ISIS could take over Europe




ISIS is a symbol of radical militant Islam. It continues to be a plague upon humanity. It has had other past forms of structure (such as Al-Qaeda) until its current form. It is a radical form of Islam and is determined to bring its ideology to the masses around the globe in any way possible. An innocent non-believer or even an Islamic believer will not be enough to block them from doing their duty to obtain their goals. This is not an anti-Muslim essay, but one against Islamic extremists. It is my contention that if world powers do not take action soon, the spread of this hostile frame of mind will invade and control countries far and wide.

ISIS reminds me of another invader from the past, who seemed to suddenly change society. It was called the Dorian invasion.

Before the Greeks, there were the Mycenaeans, a powerful people group that spread their influence throughout the region of the Mediterranean sea. They conquered the Minoans, a beautiful and wealthy rich culture on the island of Crete, as well as the mainland population of modern day Greece. As much as the Mycenaean state was a strong and vibrant culture, it  suddenly collapsed (around 1100 BC) into what is known as the Greek dark-ages.
Some experts think that the collapse was due to a group called the Sea Peoples who had superior arms...or maybe an inward collapse of the Mycenaeans themselves. I prefer the experts who say it was because of the Dorian invasion. But I don't believe it was due to an invasion as in combat, but rather a migration that influenced the culture dramatically and quickly. 
There are similarities between the Dorian invasion of the past to the ISIS influence of today. 

ISIS is spreading its military might through Syria, Iraq,and other territories east and west, forcing innocent people to flee for safety. This has resulted in a migration into Europe (and elsewhere), putting constraints on other countries to handle the immigrants. The new migrants (not all from Syria) have unintentionally created tension in societies for being from a different culture. 
The welcoming countries have continued to be overwhelmed with the influx of the Muslim people with their moderate to strict values. The hosting nations have tried to balance out the needs of the natives with the needs of the immigrants, resulting in a quasi segregation of sorts. An example would be the no-go zones, which allow the Muslims to practice their own beliefs without interference from the hosting nation. Unfortunately, the immigrants aren't fully assimilated and lack good paying jobs, which has caused dissatisfaction in the Muslim communities. These policies have forced the Muslim people into rebellion...in small ways, such as non-violent protests; and in dramatic brutal ways, as experienced in the Paris and Brusells attacks. The local governing bodies will continue to clamp down on the lawless behavior, but in the end governments will be defeated. Why?
The defeat of European states will come in the form of change in the laws. There will be push-back by conservative groups, but they will be defeated. The defeat will come from weak Liberals who wish only for peace, and angry Muslims who wish only for justice. As the population of the Muslims increase (relative to the native population), so too will disruptions in society. Confusion in national identity and unity will erupt, and a period of chaos will bring in a new European dark age. With this chaos and uncertainty, Liberals will sue for peace and give in to flexible laws toward Muslims. European countries will eventually succumb to the Muslim majority. Laws will favor Sharia, pleasing most Muslims but at the displeasure of the native population. Soon European countries will be at the mercy of the new religious order of the caliphate (an Islamic theocratic governing body), and the invasion of ISIS or it's radical offspring will be complete. 

History has shown that the stronger people with the greater will to survive, always prevail in a dispute. Nations rarely have a radical change unless a serious event moves it to change.

The United States is wrestling with their own immigration policies...weighing out the needs of it's own population verses the needs of a desperate people from across the southern border. The U.S. has become lax in it's closed border policy, but it's solution lies only in tightening the already existing rules, unlike Europe's current open border policies. 
Open borders and humanitarian mercy are noble ideals that have inadvertently complicated matters. Laissez-faire immigration leads to unpredictable unrest. If EU policies continue as they are, it is almost certain that in the coming decades an Islamic state will eventually be the rule of the day. 

There are simple solutions to solving immigration problems, but no happy ones. My personal belief is that we should focus on the needs of the migrants. Having said that, it doesn't mean ignoring the needs of the hosting countries. 
First, the internal needs of host countries should never use segregation techniques, such as the no-go. They are destructive and non-inclusive, which only aggravate the tension in society. 
Secondly, external pressures should be resolved at the source, before problems spillover into surrounding countries. I believe when nations are in political disarray, such as Syria or other countries, all other world nations must ban together to care for the people where they live. It is less expensive to help others where they are than to help them readjust to a new and foreign nation with widely contrasted social beliefs.

ISIS, on the other hand, only complicates the situation, by threatening a radical caliphate wherever they go. ISIS may not directly attack all countries with a full fledged battle, but the perfect storm has been created by ineffective national policies, both prior and after immigration has occurred. Europe is at a tipping point of societal evolution. Unfortunately, as in the Dorian invasion, which seemed to happen without an obvious attacker, so too will ISIS transform other nations if the threat isn't confronted forcefully and quickly



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorian_invasion
http://abc7.com/news/muslim-in-paris-life-inside-the-no-go-zones/1088953/

Thursday, February 4, 2016

China - Bubble Trouble.






About a year ago I mentioned the likelihood that China's prosperity was suspect. When I saw the overbuilding of unoccupied cities a few years ago, I knew they were in trouble. China has indeed stepped into a mess that even its own powerful political prowess cannot reverse. China's economy leaped into overdrive in 2014, but between the middle of 2015 and today, it has lost half it's value.



My contention is that the market will continue correcting the government's over-inflated value until it gets it right. Unfortunately, China has far reaching connections that effect governments around the world. The US is the biggest player and yet will feel it the least; but even the US has seen some dreadful dips in the market lately. 

The US business community has been very astute into methods to combat competing forces. The oil industry is an example of an industry successful in securing  oil independence. However, with that success the Middle East has been forced to flood the market with cheap oil (and lower prices) in hopes of ruining the newer fledgling U.S. oil corporations. 
Another complication for oil companies is the lifting of sanctions from Iran, which may reduce oil prices even further. Europe, on the other had, actually welcomes the lifting of Iran's sanctions. They now have a new market with which to trade and hopes of reinvigorating their lagging economic conditions. 
But back to China. If it's market slides further, it will continue to put a drag on the recovery of many other economies of the world.

Dr Larry Summers seems to have quoted an accurate condition of the global economy during an economic policy conference, when he said. "We are flying at close to stall speed."

Trouble spots:

1) US politics. I believe it will have a dramatic effect on the direction the US moves. The elections will decide whether there is a wide shift to strong socialistic policies or back to conservationism. either direction will have consequences that can be discussed at another time.

2) China's buying is coming to a halt, and with it global real-estate will suffer. China has purchased $22 billion of real-estate in English speaking cities like Sydney, Singapore, L.A, San Francisco, New York, Vancouver, and London. This accounts for 24% of the international real estate purchases.  It doesn't help that China's aging population is hurt by the previous one child policy, shrinking its labor force, and further slowing it's economic growth.

3) Middle-east unrest (ISIS in particular) will continue be a sore spot in the world economy. War always causes uncertainty where there are monetary concerns. Geopolitical tensions disrupt financial transactions, global trade, and tourism. If political resolutions occur, growth could be substantial; nevertheless, this area is so unpredictable, it is almost impossible to determine an outcome until at least the end of the year. 

I don't want to end with a sour note. Although China is going through a recent upheaval, Brazil in a recession, and Europe at the mercy of migration complications, it doesn't mean the end of the world. I expect most countries' trade and commodities will suffer in the first part of 2016. In the end, the U.S. is still the best game in town. So if we are economically pragmatic and optimistic, I expect the world markets will follow.






http://www.afr.com/news/economy/global-economy-is-in-serious-trouble-larry-summers-20151021-gkf7w9#ixzz3ylX0orXR
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/
http://www.afr.com/news/economy/global-economy-is-in-serious-trouble-larry-summers-20151021-gkf7w9
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21685484-politics-making-international-co-operation-harder-loathe-thy-neighbour?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07
http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/11/six-consequences-of-one-child-policy-reform/281539/