Not unlike the Stock Market in recent days, the United States of America has been in a period of volatility for about 15 years; more so in the last four years, and dramatically in the last 12 months. However, if this volatility isn't dealt with soon, there may be a greater concern for the citizens of the US. I will address the calamity that may occur later, but let me identify the areas of concern first. I see three major cracks in the US that should be of Concern: Political, Social, and Financial.
Political
Politics is the most obvious area whereby the country has recently slid off the rails. During the Obama administration, Republicans voiced their disappointment for the Left shifting of government, and thus gave him a "shellacking" during the midterms of 2014. As a response, the nation was caught off-guard by the Republicans' approval of Donald Trump for President.
The status quo hoped that it would continue with the standard bearers of society with Hillary Clinton but nominating an outsider like Mr. Trump upset the norm. In a previous blog I have referred to them as the political Elite (most Democrat legislators and a few Republicans) and over 90% of the news Media. Once President Trump was in the White House, the hysterical media hit-job and political hate campaign didn't let up for four years. From the Democrats point of view, damn decorum, it was a righteous battle that must be won at all costs.
During Mr. Trump's term, the pressure against him from these two groups was astounding.
From the beginning, there were perpetual calls for him to be impeached and removed, which ultimately resulted in two impeachments, but no convictions. Every action of the President was viewed by the new media from a negative angle, which allowed the Democrats free reign to push their cause. President Trump would only feed into the slurry of anger and resentment further, by calling the news "Fake" or "Dishonest." The perpetual motion and cyclical nature of the Standard Bearers vs Trump ultimately resulted in the election of Joe Biden as President in 2020. An analysis of why this occurred will all be dealt with later; but safe it to say, Covid-19 and turbulent protests helped fuel the opportunity and the ultimate demise of President Trump's reign.
Social
The social condition in America has been evolving for decades. And yet, I contend that the escalation of tension has been increasing at a faster rate, starting around 2008 to present. As noted in a previous blog the secular community grows, while mainstream religious sectors shrink.
In 2019, Pew found 65% of Americans are Christian, down from 77% in 2009. Meanwhile, those who identify as atheist, agnostic or "nothing in particular," are at 26%, up from 17% in 2009.
Examples:
The Methodist Church faces a possible split over LGBTQ inclusion differences.
Religious service attendance has decreased by 7%.
About 75% of Baby Boomers describe themselves as Christian, while less than half of Millennials do.
Religious giving continues to decline...much of it related to attendance.
Therefore, many people have found a connection to racial, financial, and systemic societal inequities; and have voiced their disappointment with more activism.
The height of this activism came In 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. State governments ordered restrictions on business operations, entertainment activities, religious gatherings, and general external contact outside the home. The augmentation began as an isolated protest of a business or church in the spring of 2020, but by summer and fall the protests increased at a regular rate in many US cities, and usually ended in property destruction.
The social effects of the lockdowns aren't yet calculated. However, restrictions generally breed anger and frustration, which results in negative behavior. After months of restrictions, these behaviors escalated into continual riots that blazed through US cities and ultimately up to the US Capitol during a critical debate on state electors. With the decrease in religious dedication, and a desire to find meaning, many of the Millennials will most likely try to fill their needs in other ways...some peaceful, some more political.
Financial
As with the change in social conditions, the financial evolution seem to follow a similar path. While secularism continues to increase, so too has the US debt.
When the market crashed in September of 2008, the government stepped in to assist. The Federal Reserve printed money to bolster the market, in hopes of build confidence. It was called quantitative easing. The Stock Market loved this, because it allowed them to accept the infusion of currency, yet ignore the real difficult issue of paying back debt. This QE was initiated several times, during the Obama administration, and did help to stabilize the economy. Unfortunately, it did not address the millions of people still out of work.
Therefore, in 2016, the electorate wanted some new ideas, and the Trump administration went full force to address it. They brought off-shore business accounts back to the US through deregulations and tax changes. However, even with the success of low unemployment and a surging economy, the national debt continued to grow. The Trump administration had the opportunity to reduce the debt, but political winds continued to blow hard against him. To achieve some success in one party meant giving up something else - which translates into dollars. Between the Obama and Trump administrations, trillions of debt - and even more trillions suggested by the Biden administration - there will come a day of reckoning that will tip the financial balance into a negative. This could come in one of two ways; pragmatic programs to increase income and reduce debt, or political polarization and further push the country into debt.
One recent upheaval that caught the status quo off-guard was the Gamestop stock trading event in January of 2021. Large hedge fund companies have had free reign to determine which companies to prey upon and make a profit from, using a financial technique called "Shorting." Gamestop was the targeted company. Unfortunately, for the hedge fund companies, many small investors saw what was coming and countered their tactic. The hedge fund companies lost billions and the small investors profited through their own technique called a "Short-Squeeze." This is one more example of how the market is being tested, yet creating volatility. While many feel this is just the Free Market exercising itself through creativity, others felt it was inexperienced dolts that shouldn't have the keys to the kingdom. In the end, it is more likely to lead to new regulations or other factors to keep the market stable.
Nevertheless, the internal complications are only exacerbated by the external ones. The US government continues to financially burden itself by giving away money it doesn't have to assist other needy nations. And, although this has been a very philanthropic and strategic policy in the past, there is always s a cost. In the future, when we give out generously to other nations without generating an equivalent income, the excess debt will ultimately force the US to become subservient to China and other countries.
Resolution
This volatility in our society will resolve itself in one of two ways - either naturally, by finding an equilibrium of satisfaction through calmer methods, or with more violence and disharmony. If cooler heads cannot prevail, volatility could extend into years or decades. In either case, a purging will take place until society discovers a new norm.
Let us hope for a more peaceful transition, or the existing cracks in the United States will become so wide that the strength of our country will split our society. And only God knows what that means.
This doesn't have to happen. There is one thing we can be sure of - that change WILL occur... but in what form?
Regardless of the targets we strive for in the future, we must be united in the direction we take now. We must take the hard road of listening to one another and find common ground. It is imperative we do not harp-on or pick at the scabs of the country's past sins. We can only look to our best selves for our salvation. And finally, we must keep from looking at each other as the enemy, but rather a fellow brother and sister of a new America.
Trump is not Hitler
http://www.garyriedl.com/2016/11/trump-is-not-hitler.html.
The Nones
http://www.garyriedl.com/2011/12/nones.html
US Balance Sheet
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/balance-sheets.html
Religiosity
https://apnews.com/article/35bd96fbeccc4cdeb191392a58ebdc2e
