Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Covid-19's Burnout

A forest can only burn when there is fuel.


Like a forest fire, viruses need a host for it to survive. The forest needs trees to burn and Covid-19 needs humans with weak immune systems.  Is there a point where this Coronovirus could eventually burnout...maybe soon? 


Using the fire scenario, imagine the U.S. as a forest of match sticks. Most of the big cities have a concentration of matches, while the rural areas (albeit larger in area) only have a few. When the Coronovirus first entered the U.S. it was introduced through airports in large cities...the West Coast closed earlier than the East Coast. Thus, still with daily connections to other countries, New York City was by far the first major firestorm, but other connecting cities soon followed with destruction. Now imagine the cities  as matches burning wildly out of control, but as the fires died down in the cities, they slowly continue to reach out to the suburbs and rural areas. It is not hard to conclude that once the states implemented 'Phase 1' and 'Phase 2,' the contagious city dwellers spread the virus to these rural areas.
We know  Covid-19 cases increase when three things are in place:
1) The virus is still active - no Herd Immunity.
2) There are available hosts.
3) There is adequate testing and contact tracing to prove positive increases. 
It is also assumed that an increasing death rate will follow, if hosts' immunity is compromised.  

My primary information resides within an academic article by The Conversation (see link below). I will be referring to its data and sources from now on.
With businesses reopening and people moving about, it goes without saying that the case numbers would increase. Now that in itself would be okay, if the people in the rural areas were healthy - and many are. However, rural areas also have more elderly populations - the most immune compromised folk. 
Here is a graph of the susceptibility of rural areas. In my state, for example (Oregon), notice the weak spots are now outside the city, out to the corners of the state. Malheur county in the desert and  Coos county at the coast (previously low in cases and zero deaths) are now considered high risk areas. Look at your own state to see how the high risk areas have finally moved to rural communities.



Not only is the spread  a leading factor in Covid case numbers increasing, but the secondary damage is what happens when the virus arrives. 
The graph below shows the breakdown between city and rural and the contributing susceptibility factors to Covid-19. Everything above the green line is the more vulnerable factor, below the green line - less so. 
Notice how the cities' burden is densely populated areas, while it's the country towns' vulnerability is the weaker elderly, and in semi-rural areas - people with underlying conditions. A doctor at a local hospital told me most of the deaths she's seen are those elderly from nursing homes.  

In any case, unlike cities, lack of health care and social services makes rural communities particularly vulnerable. In many areas, it will most likely require volunteers and civic groups integrated with  state support to mitigate rural sickness. Will this be enough to smother the virus?

Tackling Covid-19 in the future

I contend that like a forest fire it could burn itself out.  Notice I said could and not would. That is because it depends on how much of a Herd Immunity we will have and what kind of treatment is available to help those infected.
A vaccine is like a manufactured Herd Immunity (see link below - 2min mark how the Herd Immunity works). However, a vaccine will take some time to develop. So, without a vacine, it's important to be strategic with good scientific methodology as we enter into the fall season.
But, again, could it burn itself out? Professor Karol Sikora, former director of the WHO, believes that it's likely.
 https://www.firstpost.com/health/coronavirus-could-burn-out-on-its-own-before-we-have-a-working-vaccine-former-who-chief-8387911.html

Flattening the Curve was the mantra at the earliest stages of the pandemic, so that the hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.  This was to be able to care for in-coming patients at the hospital. An yet, that slogan is true in another regard - it buys time for scientists and medical professionals to find new ways of combating the virus. As people become more aware of proper health practices (i.e. not touching their face and hand washing after being in crowds), our society has time and is better prepared for the next event.  
Furthermore, government agencies can learn from these experiences and use new techniques and medicines to tackle the next strain or other unknown novel virus that may be lurking just around the corner.
The best preparedness came from Taiwan, who was the first country to sound the alarm to the World Health Organization (WHO) about the Coronavirus. Unfortunately, the rest of the world ignored them, because they weren't formal members of the WHO. Tawain has a population greater than New York, and yet has had only seven deaths. That is not a typo - SEVEN Covid-19 deaths in Taiwan, between December of 2019 and July of 2020.  Taiwan knew what was coming and initiated their country's locked down three days BEFORE Wuhan was locked down in China. Sadly, the world would look completely different now, if it had only listen to their warning.

America has seen worse diseases in the past, and will certainly see them in the future. Therefore, whether or not Covid-19 burns out this year or it morphs into another strain, it is vital that the scientific and political community work together (nationally and abroad),  using technology and proven procedures to stamp out the pandemic  forest fires before they rage across the earth once again.



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